Russian Statement on Nuclear Treaty Raises Concerns
A high-level Russian military official has indicated that Moscow might abandon the 1987 Intermediate-Range and Short-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 28).

Moscow might look at redeploying intermediate-range, nuclear-capable missiles banned under the treaty, the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta on Wednesday quoted Gen. Vladimir Vasilenko, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Research Institute, as saying.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov last year suggested doing away with the treaty during a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, according to UPI. Rumsfeld argued against such a move.

Under the treaty, the former Soviet Union scrapped its intermediate-range, multi-independently targeted vehicle (MIRV) missiles.

While renouncing the treaty would do little to enhance Russia’s direct strategic deterrent threat to the United States, it would pose a threat to Europe, according to U.S. military analysts.

Analysts said Vasilenko could be speaking for ultranationalist hard-liners within the Russian military, or possibly testing the waters on behalf of leaders in Moscow who could later deny his statements. Any indication of serious intent to pull out of the treaty would come from Ivanov or Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, analysts said.

Moscow could be contemplating a strategy to challenge the United States and the European Union, said Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

“Russia is staking a geostrategic position separate from the United States and Western Europe and reverting to the Soviet-era military thinking,” Cohen said.

Redeploying the MIRV-ed missiles would also pose a challenge to missile defense systems, according to UPI, because the weapons are fired over relatively short ranges and have low trajectories.