January 28, 2009
Is there a commonality between Raul Castro's visit to Moscow and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's cockiness toward President Obama? Are our enemies preparing to test America's new leadership?
On Wednesday, Cuban premier Castro, brother of the ailing Fidel, arrived in Russia on an eight-day visit aimed at strengthening ties between the two anti-U.S. regimes.
The visit comes a month after three Russian warships visited Cuba and Venezuela and two months after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Havana. The Russian ships had engaged in joint operations with the Venezuelan navy.
Before departing on his present trip, Raul described Cuban-Russian relations as "wonderful." Cuba supported Russia in opposing the Bush administration's policy to install missile defenses in Europe and extend NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine. Russia has called for an end to the nearly 50-year-old U.S. trade embargo against Cuba, which prohibits American tourists from visiting the country.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, it's hardly surprising to see Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad snapping at President Obama's outstretched diplomatic hand.
"Those who say they want to make change," Ahmadinejad said, "this is the change they should make: They should apologize to the Iranian nation and try to make up for their dark background and the crimes they have committed against the Iranian nation."
In fact, while the CIA helped install the Shah more than a half-century ago, it was a Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, whose undermining of the Shah allowed the Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamist revolution to succeed — without which Mahmoud would be unlikely to have his job today.
Ahmadinejad apparently does not share the view held in Western diplomatic circles that the Obama presidency is a rare opportunity at which Tehran should jump for the sake of Iran's own interests. Instead of throttling down the heated rhetoric after the departure of George W. Bush, the Iranian president has actually intensified the harsh words against the U.S.
Does the behavior of Raul and Mahmoud constitute a pattern? During last year's campaign, the enemies of the free world certainly seemed eager to see Americans choose Barack Obama.
Fidel Castro expressed hope that Obama would be elected, praising his "intelligence and serenity." Ahmadinejad said he hoped so too, remarking to an American student in September that "we do prefer to have relations, whereas one of the candidates in this election would prefer that."
The day before Election Day, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez issued a somewhat muted endorsement in this form: "The world awaits the arrival of a black president to the United States; we can say this is no small feat."
Nicaragua's Sandinista President Daniel Ortega said the election of Obama as president would be "laying the foundations for a revolutionary change" in America. And Kim Jong-il's regime in North Korea expressed a preference for Obama over John McCain.
As to terrorist groups, a captured laptop revealed that Colombia's FARC organization was hoping and expecting the election of Obama. And Hamas' Gaza Strip political adviser Ahmed Yousuf last year said, "We like Mr. Obama, and we hope that he will win the elections."
Now that the new president has actually taken office, are we seeing clues as to why these hostile governments and armed groups wanted an Obama presidency? Do they now believe that America will be less committed to fighting the global war on terror and will be placing more faith in the tools of diplomacy?
In the case of Iran, that would mean the offering of more carrots to dissuade the regime from continuing its nuclear enrichment program, plus direct U.S.-Iran talks, no doubt followed by many months of Iran being humored as it mulls over our proposals.
This is not to say that Castro, Ahmadinejad and our other enemies have guessed right about President Obama, Secretary Clinton and the rest of the new administration being weak. But it does mean that Vice President Joe Biden may well have been right a few months ago when he warned that our enemies intend to test this new president, and probably soon.
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