China-North Korea Relationship

[Ryan Ruck]

Seems there's a bit of friction between China and NK of late...

China Will Take ‘Necessary Steps’ For Security If North Korean Regime Collapses

Defence spokesman Ren Guoqiang affirms military will safeguard security and sovereignty

February 24, 2017

China will take the “necessary measures” to safeguard national security in the event of the collapse of the neighbouring North Korean regime, a defence official said on Thursday.

The recent assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother Kim Jong-nam has sparked renewed concerns over the stability of Pyongyang and the possibility of a collapse of the reclusive regime.

Beijing – long seen as the guarantor of Pyongyang’s security – has stayed largely silent on the incident.

But in a sign of its growing frustration with Pyongyang and as part of efforts to increase pressure on the regime over its latest missile test earlier this month, China announced last week it would suspend all imports of coal from North Korea for the rest of the year, depriving the country of a crucial source of foreign capital.

Asked whether China had a contingency plan for a North Korean collapse, defence ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang said Beijing has maintained its usual policy towards Pyongyang, and urged the “relevant parties to refrain from any actions that will escalate tensions”.

“We are resolute in safeguarding the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula, sticking to the objective of denuclearization and to resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation,”Ren said on Thursday.

“The Chinese military will take the necessary measures, according to the need that arises in the security environment, to safeguard national security and sovereignty,” he said.

Ren denied recent reports that China had sent troops to the border between China and North Korea after Kim Jong-nam’s death to prevent potential large-scale refugee crossings.

Beijing has often been criticised by US President Donald Trump for not doing enough to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear development.

The latest missile test has reaffirmed South Korea’s resolve to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), a US-developed anti-ballistic missile system, following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January last year.

South Korea’s acting president, Hwang Kyo-ahn, said on Monday the deployment could not be delayed in the face of the growing nuclear missile threat from the North, despite Beijing’s hostility to the move, Reuters reported.

Beijing has strongly protested deployment of THAAD, arguing that the system is not targeted to prevent an attack from North Korea, but could be used to spy on Chinese missile flight tests.

Ren at the defence ministry yesterday reiterated China’s opposition to THAAD, saying China would “take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security and sovereignty”.

[Ryan Ruck]

North Korea Condemns Lone Ally China Publicly for ‘First Time’

February 24, 2017

North Korea is not a country with a lot of allies.

So when its state-run news agency appeared to lash out at key supporter China — alleging it was "dancing to the tune of the U.S." — it raised eyebrows.

The ties between Pyongyang and Beijing run deep, with the relationship characterized by some former Chinese leaders as "close as lips and teeth." "China is North Korea's most important ally, biggest trading partner, and main source of food, arms, and energy," according to a backgrounder published last year by the Council on Foreign Relations. It added that "China provides North Korea with most of its food and energy supplies and accounts for more than 70 percent of North Korea's total trade volume."

However, China disapproves of North Korea's nuclear program and has backed U.N. sanctions against it.

So China banning further imports of coal from North Korea on Sunday was significant. The move was regarded by analysts as a reaction to both the apparent assassination in Malaysia of Kim Jong Nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and to his regime's recent test of a ballistic missile.

That was followed Thursday by North Korea's state-run KCNA news agency castigating "a neighboring country, which often calls itself a 'friendly neighbor,'" and saying it was "dancing to the tune of the U.S."

Although China wasn't mentioned by name, experts said there was little doubt about which country it was referring to.

Kim Jong Un's government was sending China a message, according to a former diplomat who served in North Korea.

"It's saying to China to 'back off, shut up, leave us alone,'" said James Edward Hoare, who established the British Embassy in Pyongyang in 2001.

He added that is also important to bear in mind that North Korea often does things for domestic consumption.

"Everything in North Korea is stated in highly exaggerated terms," Hoare said.

China needs North Korea for several reasons. Bilateral trade is important not only to North Korea but to parts of China, according to Hoare.

He added that China has no interest in destabilizing the government of its ally, and perhaps in the process bolstering South Korea's claim to be the legitimate government of the entire Korean peninsula. That would result in a unified Korea with a pro-U.S. foreign policy and American troop presence.

However, Beijing also wants to avoid a potential humanitarian crisis on its borders that would be spurred by a collapse of Kim's regime.

So it wasn't surprising that China's public response to the KCNA's statement was mild on Friday.

"China and [North Korea] are friendly neighbors," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said. "We would like to work together with [North Korea] to develop a healthy and stable .... relationship."

North Korea accuses China of "mean behavior" and "dancing to America's tune." It's clear that China is now left with just one ally, Pakistan

— Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) February 23, 2017

But Professor Hu Xingdou, a political affairs commentator who is based at Beijing Institute of Technology, told NBC News that North Korea is already a "liability" to China.

He said that while "there are already cracks" in the relationship, it was "better to maintain peace on the surface."

Hu added: "It is not the first time North Korea has said things about China like this but it is the first time they have said it so publicly."

North Korea, poor, suspicious of outsiders and governed by a third-generation dictator, is used to being underestimated and mocked. Few believed it could build a nuclear program that would keep U.S. presidents since the early 1990s up at night.

There's a general consensus that Pyongyang has made significant nuclear and missile progress under Kim, who took over after his father, Kim Jong Il, died in late 2011.

Kim has conducted three of the country's five total nuclear tests, including two last year. Propaganda out of Pyongyang makes clear that North Korea views nuclear weapons as essential to keeping at bay U.S. and South Korean forces it says are intent on its destruction.

According to The Associated Press, some U.S. experts believe North Korea may have enough fuel for about 20 bombs and can add a possible half dozen more each year.

Before taking office last month, President Donald Trump complained in a tweet that China was not doing enough to help to contain Pyongyang.

China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won't help with North Korea. Nice!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2017

But Hu pointed out that Kim's nuclear program was also a concern for Beijing.

"The potential threat of North Korea's nukes is enormous to China," he said. "Whether they use them or not, there is still potential for a nuclear leak. So the only thing China can do is to take serious action to contain the potential danger."