Think Kim Jong Il's bad? -- just you wait

Think Kim Jong Il's bad? -- just you wait
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | January 7, 2007 | Ken E. Gause



For some, the nightmare is a collapse of the North Korean regime causing a tide of refugees to flow into China and South Korea. For others, it is the possibility of North Korea selling nuclear weapons to terrorists.


While both are worth worrying about, there is a third scenario that is every bit as chilling and may be even more likely: a nuclear-armed North Korea in the aftermath of Kim Jong Il's death.


This possibility deserves consideration. After all, Kim is getting old (65) and is not in great health (high blood pressure, diabetes, kidney problems, heart problems and maybe liver problems). Many Pyongyang watchers doubt he will make it much past 70, or even to 70 (assuming he dies of natural causes). That is the reason that a succession struggle inside the regime is proceeding in earnest.


What happens if Kim dies or is removed in the next few years and the nuclear issue remains unresolved?


We will likely be facing a nuclear-armed North Korea with as many as 13 nukes and a fuzzy sense of who is in control. The ruling Korean Workers Party has been eviscerated during the past decade and power increasingly shifted to the military as part of the country's military-first policy. Civilian control isn't likely. Kim has three sons, none of whom is capable of being anything more than a figurehead for an increasingly paranoid high command.


As for control of the 1.2 million-man military, one of Kim's hats is that of supreme commander. If he dies, his successor is supposed to be chosen by the party's Central Military Committee, which is composed of many of the regime's key power holders.


The fact that Kim has spent a decade ensuring that he is the sole linchpin within the security apparatus, however, makes it highly...

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