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Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say

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  • Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say


    Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say NATO Has Been Caught Napping And Would Be Hopelessly Outgunned


    February 3, 2016

    Russia could overrun Eastern Europe in just three days because NATO has not been bolstering its fleet since Vladimir Putin took Crimea, according to US military predictions.

    Testing every possible scenario in a series of war games, a US military think tank has concluded it would take a resurgent Russia between 36 and 60 hours to push its 27 heavily-armored battalions past NATO's lightweight 12 to occupy the Baltic States.

    Most likely, the study found, Russia would start by launching a two-pronged attack across the Latvian border, sending heavily-armed battalions in from the north and the south.

    These battalions would push past the light-weight Latvian and NATO battalions before uniting to take the capital of Riga.

    Once secured, the remaining part of Russia's 27 maneuver battalions would cross the Narva reservoir into Estonia to take the ethnic Russian north-east before heading to Tallinn, the capital.

    NATO's only hope would be to concentrate its forces in Tallinn and Riga while stationing some delays along the main routes. But eventually, the West 'would have to launched a belated nuclear attack'.

    'The outcome was, bluntly, a disaster for NATO,' the report concludes.


    This is a map of how a US military think tank believes Russia could overrun NATO to take the Baltic States in just 36-60 hours. Even with a week's notice, NATO's 12-strong fleet would be no match against Putin's 27

    The report warns, NATO's ground forces are no match for Russia's. They do not have any battle tanks; all of Russia's do. And NATO would have little room for maneuver, annexed in by Russian forces in Kalingrad Oblast.

    In the scenario given by the study, NATO would have one week's notice to defend Eastern Europe.

    The study, carried out between 2014 and 2015, suggested even a combination of US and Baltic troops combined with US airstrikes would not be able to prevent Russia advancing.

    Seven of NATO's 12 battalions in Eastern Europe are domestic fleets of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They only have one heavy armored fleet, a single Stryker battalion, and no main battle tanks, the report explains.

    Though NATO's air power could put up a strong defense, it would be futile as its lightweight ground forces would be plowed down by Russia's.

    'The games' findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members,' the report said.

    'Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad.'

    The study claims that 'avoiding such a swift and catastrophic failure does not appear to require a Herculean effort' - but it would be expensive.

    Airpower and artillery backed up with around seven brigades - three of them heavily armored - in the Baltic area would be enough to 'prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states'.

    But this would cost around $2.7 billion a year.

    'Crafting this deterrent posture would not be inexpensive in absolute terms, with annual costs perhaps running on the order of $2.7 billion,' the authors write.

    'That is not a small number, but seen in the context of an Alliance with an aggregate gross domestic product in excess of $35 trillion and combined yearly defense spending of more than $1 trillion, it hardly appears unaffordable.'

    The report emerged a day after the Obama administration said it will propose quadrupling what it spends on its troops and training in Europe, as part of the U.S. military's accelerating effort to deter Russia.

    President Barack Obama, in his final budget request to Congress, will ask for $3.4billion — up from $789million for the current budget year — for what the Pentagon calls its European Reassurance Initiative, which was announced in 2014 in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine.

    Defense Secretary Ash Carter, giving an overview of the administration's proposed 2017 defense budget of $582.7billion, described Russia as a growing challenge for the United States. He said the U.S. was taking a 'strong and balanced approach' to deterring its former Cold War foe.

    'We haven't had to worry about this for 25 years, and while I wish it were otherwise, now we do,' Carter said in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington.

    Obama, warning that Russia had taken an 'aggressive posture' near NATO countries, called it a 'challenging and important time' for the alliance, whose members in Europe are increasingly concerned about Russia's intentions after its incursions in Ukraine.

    He said the U.S. had taken decisive steps to bolster NATO since the start of Russia's actions in Ukraine, but that it hadn't been enough.

    'It is clear that the United States and our allies must do more to advance our common defense in support of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace,' Obama said.

    NATO's top civilian official, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, issued a statement applauding Carter's proposed increase in spending in Europe.

    'This is a clear sign of the enduring commitment by the United States to European security,' he said. 'It will be a timely and significant contribution to NATO's deterrence, and collective defense.'

    Michal Baranowski, head of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank, said the increased spending was a positive development and would be a 'key ingredient' for success at a NATO summit to be attended by allied heads of government in July in the Polish capital.

    'I think it's great news for Poland, the region and NATO as a whole — the extra investment will make NATO's flank safer by more effectively deterring Russia. It's also an important sign of U.S. leadership that is badly needed at NATO,' Baranowski said in an interview.

    • Volk
      #10
      Volk commented
      Editing a comment
      Re: Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say

      Russia’s behavior exemplifies what American political scientist John Mearsheimer describes as structural offensive realism, a school of thought that “maintains it makes good strategic sense for states to gain as much power as possible.”[1] Mearsheimer further explains that in a political system without a higher authority above the great powers, with no guarantee that one will not attack another, it makes eminently good sense for each state to be powerful enough to protect itself.” [2] Russia’s modern day philosophy of consolidating power to protect its territory stems from a surprise attack by Nazi Germany in 1941 that resulted in over four million Soviet casualties during Operation Barbarossa, and 20 million total on the Eastern front.
      That pretty much says it all, right there. America and Russia, China, etc... Need to be powerful enough to protect themselves, from within and from without, from any potential enemy. Whether they can without avoiding war, this is a difficult question indeed.

    • vector7
      #11
      vector7 commented
      Editing a comment
      Re: Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say

      Originally posted by vector7 View Post
      Video: Plane of Russian Defense Minister Buzzed by NATO Jet

      June 21, 2017



      One day after Russia flew within 5 feet of United States recon plane flying over the Baltic, NATO buzzed past Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s plane while carrying the Russian defense minister.

      A plane carrying Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was buzzed by a NATO F-16 fighter jet as it flew over the Baltic Sea, but was seen off by a Russian Sukhoi-27 military jet, Russian news agencies reported on Wednesday.

      The F-16 had tried to approach the aircraft carrying the defense minister even though it was flying over neutral waters, agencies said.

      Shoigu was reported to be en route to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad for a meeting to discuss how well Russia's western flank was defended.

      One of the Russian fighter jets escorting Shoigu's plane had inserted itself between the defense minister's plane and the NATO fighter and tilted its wings from side to side to show the weapons it was carrying, Russian agencies said.

      After that, agencies said the F-16 left the area.

      The Baltic Sea has become an area of rising tensions between Moscow and NATO. Earlier this month, Russia scrambled a fighter jet to intercept a nuclear-capable U.S. B-52 strategic bomber it said was flying over the Baltic near its border, in an incident that had echoes of the Cold War.

      The Kremlin referred questions about the latest incident to the defense ministry, which did not immediately comment. It has said in the past that all Russian flights over the Baltic are conducted in strict accordance with international law.

      The incident occurred a day after the Russian defense ministry said an RC-135 U.S. reconnaissance plane had swerved dangerously in the proximity of a Russian fighter jet over the Baltic. The ministry said at the same time that another RC-135 had been intercepted by a Russian jet in the same area.

      The Pentagon had a different version of events.

      Apparently referring to the same episode, Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said the U.S. aircraft "did nothing to provoke this behavior."

      The Pentagon said the intercept had been unsafe and accused the Russian pilot of flying too fast and having "poor control" over his SU-27 fighter jet.

      Companion Thread:
      Russian Preparations for War

      Russia scrambles to build 20 new military bases around 40 garrison towns on Russia's western front before the end of 2017

      Military & Defense
      June 21, 15:50 UTC+3

      Around 40 garrison towns are currently being built, according to Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu



      © Kirill Kukhmar/TASS

      KALININGRAD, June 21. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to establish around 20 military units and bases in the Western Military District before the year ends, Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu said at the ministry’s board meeting.

      "Around 20 military units and bases will be established in the Western Military District before the end of the year, around 40 garrison towns are currently being built," the minister said adding that modern weapons were being supplied.



      Russia’s Western Military District to get four S-400 missile systems this year

      Shoigu also said that in winter, the troops deployed to the Western Military District had increased their combat capabilities by 2.5 times in comparison with the same period last year. According to the defense minister, the quality of junior military staff training has grown, more than 60% of training center graduates scored As and Bs in the exams.

      "Since the beginning of the year, more than 100 snap combat readiness checks have been held in the Western Military District, which confirmed that the troops were ready for military activities," the Russian defense minister stressed.

      Shoigu pointed out that the Baltic Fleet ships’ presence in the important areas of the Atlantic Ocean had been renewed after a long break.

      More:
      http://tass.com/defense/952617

    • Volk
      #12
      Volk commented
      Editing a comment
      Re: Russia Could Overrun The Baltic States In THREE DAYS: US War Planners Say

      Originally posted by vector7

      Companion Thread:
      Russian Preparations for War

      Russia scrambles to build 20 new military bases around 40 garrison towns on Russia's western front before the end of 2017

      Military & Defense
      June 21, 15:50 UTC+3

      Around 40 garrison towns are currently being built, according to Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu



      © Kirill Kukhmar/TASS

      KALININGRAD, June 21. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to establish around 20 military units and bases in the Western Military District before the year ends, Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu said at the ministry’s board meeting.

      "Around 20 military units and bases will be established in the Western Military District before the end of the year, around 40 garrison towns are currently being built," the minister said adding that modern weapons were being supplied.



      Russia’s Western Military District to get four S-400 missile systems this year

      Shoigu also said that in winter, the troops deployed to the Western Military District had increased their combat capabilities by 2.5 times in comparison with the same period last year. According to the defense minister, the quality of junior military staff training has grown, more than 60% of training center graduates scored As and Bs in the exams.

      "Since the beginning of the year, more than 100 snap combat readiness checks have been held in the Western Military District, which confirmed that the troops were ready for military activities," the Russian defense minister stressed.

      Shoigu pointed out that the Baltic Fleet ships’ presence in the important areas of the Atlantic Ocean had been renewed after a long break.

      More:
      http://tass.com/defense/952617
      Well, the West of Russia does happen to be where the invasions of Russia frequently come from, historically speaking. From Swedes and Teutonic Knights, Frenchmen and Germans and Poles, that has been the case. Therefore, a buildup of Russian forces at this time is both natural from a military standpoint and also quite serious.
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